Hey, that's no way to say goodbye
I know what you're all going to ask me, and the answer is no, I've got no insider information about it. Well, I have some speculation, but it's not very interesting, though it's topical by virtue of the weekend reports.
In 2002, when the DA fell apart, some of us asked Helen Zille to run against Theuns Botha for the provincial leadership. She refused. At the time it seemed like provincial party suicide; Theuns has qualities, but charisma and electability are not among them. But though Helen has those qualities, she clearly felt they would be better exercised in Parliament after 2004. How right she was, we should never have doubted her.
Who are these 'we' people anyway? The two factions in the Western Cape DA are, as you might well imagine, the ex-Nats and the ex-Progs. Time has passed; the boundaries are becoming blurry; not everyone born to each party now belongs to their respective faction. But the factions still exist and they cast a long shadow over present politics in the party.
'We' in this context are the ex-Progs. It's not hard to see that Helen is an ex-Prog, and Theuns is an archtypical ex-Nat. Helen can count on undivided support from the ex-Progs, and on lukewarm support from the ex-Nats, because of her leadership qualities. Theuns can count on undivided support from the ex-Nats, and almost no support whatever from the ex-Progs (or at least, this is what we thought: I'll write about the Haasbroek Protocol another time).
In a straight fight, though, the ex-Nats are stronger in the Western Cape. If Helen goes up against Theuns, she loses.
But the picture is very different in the rest of the country. The ex-Progs are overall far stronger nationally than the ex-Nats. It's obvious now that, whatever the ex-Progs would like for the Western Cape, an ex-Prog leader from our province who wants to win must take her fights nationally. There is no alternative, because she will get a simple veto from her own province if she tries to 'climb the ladder' in a conventional manner.
This, I speculate, is what Helen is doing. She carries absolute and unwavering support as a DA leader from the liberals in her own province. She is fairly well-known in other provinces, but believe me we are not resting on our laurels and neither is she. The rest of the party is getting to hear all about her abilities.
Does this add up to a challenge for the DA Leadership? No. Or, at least, not yet.
Tony Leon, it is true, is a ruthless leader by democratic standards. But for such a divided party, he is a very strong leader too. He claims quite strong support from the ex-Progs because he is, whatever he says about the death penalty, a very thoughtful and intelligent liberal.
But he claims support from the ex-Nats too. The reasons for this are very interesting. The National Party had a strong tradition of leadership, not to say a leadership cult. The absolute stagnation of leadership in that party has left many ex-Nats with an overwhelming thirst for someone who can pull things together and get things done. Though he is reviled among the ex-Nats for many reasons, Tony still claims a lot of credit among them for rescuing them from a political death. This support wanes gradually, but it can still come in very handy for him. In addition, because of the sometimes tense relations he has with the ex-Progs, ambitious ex-Nats see Tony as a leader with an Achilles heel, and that is an attribute you always desire in a leader if you plan eventually on getting rid of him.
The fact that he is a unifying force is not lost on the liberals either. So for a variety of reasons, some very ambiguous, Tony remains in his place.
In addition, the nature of a challenge must be considered. The DA elects its office-bearers, including its Leader (yes, capitalised for extra spookiness), at a biennial Federal Congress. As is usual in modern political parties the congress is a staged event. To some degree this is inevitable: nominations for office bearers must be in hand long before the conference, so the organisers can make a plan to manage the media if it looks like there's going to be a fight.
But managing the internal divisions of the DA is now the sine qua non of getting ahead in the party. Whoever challenges Tony and expects to win will have to make provision for handling the behaviour of the Federal Congress. zaBlogger stresses the role of caretaker Leader will be crucial in this eventuality, and he is right. Ideally, from the successor's point of view, Tony would resign in advance and make absolutely sure that there is only one name on the ballot.
When it happens, as it must happen sooner or later, I believe it will happen this way.
In 2002, when the DA fell apart, some of us asked Helen Zille to run against Theuns Botha for the provincial leadership. She refused. At the time it seemed like provincial party suicide; Theuns has qualities, but charisma and electability are not among them. But though Helen has those qualities, she clearly felt they would be better exercised in Parliament after 2004. How right she was, we should never have doubted her.
Who are these 'we' people anyway? The two factions in the Western Cape DA are, as you might well imagine, the ex-Nats and the ex-Progs. Time has passed; the boundaries are becoming blurry; not everyone born to each party now belongs to their respective faction. But the factions still exist and they cast a long shadow over present politics in the party.
'We' in this context are the ex-Progs. It's not hard to see that Helen is an ex-Prog, and Theuns is an archtypical ex-Nat. Helen can count on undivided support from the ex-Progs, and on lukewarm support from the ex-Nats, because of her leadership qualities. Theuns can count on undivided support from the ex-Nats, and almost no support whatever from the ex-Progs (or at least, this is what we thought: I'll write about the Haasbroek Protocol another time).
In a straight fight, though, the ex-Nats are stronger in the Western Cape. If Helen goes up against Theuns, she loses.
But the picture is very different in the rest of the country. The ex-Progs are overall far stronger nationally than the ex-Nats. It's obvious now that, whatever the ex-Progs would like for the Western Cape, an ex-Prog leader from our province who wants to win must take her fights nationally. There is no alternative, because she will get a simple veto from her own province if she tries to 'climb the ladder' in a conventional manner.
This, I speculate, is what Helen is doing. She carries absolute and unwavering support as a DA leader from the liberals in her own province. She is fairly well-known in other provinces, but believe me we are not resting on our laurels and neither is she. The rest of the party is getting to hear all about her abilities.
Does this add up to a challenge for the DA Leadership? No. Or, at least, not yet.
Tony Leon, it is true, is a ruthless leader by democratic standards. But for such a divided party, he is a very strong leader too. He claims quite strong support from the ex-Progs because he is, whatever he says about the death penalty, a very thoughtful and intelligent liberal.
But he claims support from the ex-Nats too. The reasons for this are very interesting. The National Party had a strong tradition of leadership, not to say a leadership cult. The absolute stagnation of leadership in that party has left many ex-Nats with an overwhelming thirst for someone who can pull things together and get things done. Though he is reviled among the ex-Nats for many reasons, Tony still claims a lot of credit among them for rescuing them from a political death. This support wanes gradually, but it can still come in very handy for him. In addition, because of the sometimes tense relations he has with the ex-Progs, ambitious ex-Nats see Tony as a leader with an Achilles heel, and that is an attribute you always desire in a leader if you plan eventually on getting rid of him.
The fact that he is a unifying force is not lost on the liberals either. So for a variety of reasons, some very ambiguous, Tony remains in his place.
In addition, the nature of a challenge must be considered. The DA elects its office-bearers, including its Leader (yes, capitalised for extra spookiness), at a biennial Federal Congress. As is usual in modern political parties the congress is a staged event. To some degree this is inevitable: nominations for office bearers must be in hand long before the conference, so the organisers can make a plan to manage the media if it looks like there's going to be a fight.
But managing the internal divisions of the DA is now the sine qua non of getting ahead in the party. Whoever challenges Tony and expects to win will have to make provision for handling the behaviour of the Federal Congress. zaBlogger stresses the role of caretaker Leader will be crucial in this eventuality, and he is right. Ideally, from the successor's point of view, Tony would resign in advance and make absolutely sure that there is only one name on the ballot.
When it happens, as it must happen sooner or later, I believe it will happen this way.
posted by mal @ 7:09 AM
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