The consequences of a breakdown in the tripartite alliance

Political trade unions are common the world around, particularly in countries where the workers speak English: Britain, America, Australia (at least historically, and even then not socialist), Zimbabwe. Among non-English nations: Germany and Poland. COSATU is not shy of political involvement, and might very well pursue the mode of socialist labour party. Our labour movement is not only already politicised, but there are many good international templates they might choose to copy if they abandon the tripartite alliance. And COSATU, or a Workers' Party front uniting them with non-COSATU unions, would surely contest elections after a split.

It's most troubling to imagine the state of the nation after a split. It's not like the deceptively simple breakdown of the DA when the Nats left. The government itself would be destabilised, even if it didn't fall. A conflict between urban and rural people would emerge if COSATU is as electorally strong as they hope. Even if the ANC holds on to the government, the position and credibility of the president and his government would be weakened because he could and would be accused of destroying the power base of the governing party. If the ANC is forced to protect its black African constituency, it might elaborate in unforeseeable ways on an African nationalist project.

This isn't only party-political stuff, people. COSATU leaders must know that a split might well precipitate a South African constitutional crisis. The country's political systems are not well-adjusted to a real contest for power. To begin with, the floor-crossing rules would face a more serious challenge of legitimacy. The extensive pattern of ANC 'cadre deployments' throughout the administration may cause a breakdown in the civil service, pitting ANC ideologists against the COSATU shop-stewards who were their erstwhile colleagues.

But this is the worst that could happen. South Africa would not break down. Civil society can function in South Africa even with unstable democratic government. South Africa actually needs a peaceful constitutional crisis of this kind so as to develop political systems necessary to make democracy permanent.