Highly toxic

Until last week, I'd say the fight between COSATU and the ANC was engineered by COSATU using the well-established second-rank mechanism. The second-rank mechanism is a variety of kite-flying employing spokespeople of an organisation, whose statements can later be 'clarified'. The man who started the fight about Zimbabwe, who issued calls for a blockade at Beit Bridge, and who poked Smuts Ngonyama in the eye about the Telkom deal, is Patrick Craven and he, as COSATU spokesperson, can't be considered anything more than a mouthpiece.

Only on Friday last week Zwelinzima Vavi got involved personally. Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma haven't yet replied in kind; they've just turned Ngonyama and Malusi Gigaba loose.

As usual, all this adds up to another spate of jockeying between the first- and second-strongest partners in the tripartite alliance. People are again talking of a split. But what does it take for COSATU to split from the ANC?

1. Motive. COSATU is going to need a reason to split from the ANC. Not the touted reasons involving tactics in Zimbabwe or Telkom. Rather: when will COSATU get its chance to form a government on its own terms?
2. Opportunity. Political decisions are taken when the omens are good, and at no other time. Observers of the fighting must realise that, to the extent that COSATU wants to break from the alliance, they would prefer the ANC to throw them out. They don't want to secede; voters don't like a loser.
3. A fast getaway. COSATU will need electoral support after the split. They will need exact metrics of how many voters will back them out of the alliance. The moment it looks like they can form a government without the ANC is the moment they'll split. They will also need to split shortly before an election or, if not then, to be sure they can bring down the government and force them to renegotiate power sharing. (An additional requirement is that they must be sure they won't be frozen out if the rump ANC decides to turn to alternative sources of support, such as the DA.)

The ANC must feel very sure that none of the following conditions will emerge any time soon, if can taunt Zwelinzima Vavi by calling him a 'young child'.

What of the role of the non-COSATU unions in all this? Some of those unions, particularly Solidarity, have interests in what's going on at Telkom, and they might be very keen on messages coming out of COSATU about this subject. And I'm guessing that COSATU may have more to say to the non-affiliated unions after a split from the tripartite alliance. Might the emergence of a truly multi-racial labour party be possible after all?